Miguel Cotto (Left) and Joshua Clottey (Right) will battle for the WBO welterweight title Saturday, June 13 at Madison Square Garden. AP Photo/Seth Wenig

By Brian M. Rodriguez

brian@pugilismandthepen.com

Once again the boxing universe will turn its collective eye to the original Mecca of the sport this weekend, as Miguel Cotto (33-1, 27 KOs) defends his WBO welterweight title against Joshua Clottey (35-2, 20 KOs) at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

This encounter between two of the top 147-pound fighters on the planet promises not only brutal violence inside the ring, but also the fervid fanaticism of thousands of Puerto Ricans at the Garden eager to see Miguel Cotto continue his winning tradition in his fourth fight on the eve of the annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade.  Even though Clottey currently resides in the Bronx, he will be walking into the proverbial lion’s den, with countless Boricuas screaming hysterically for the Ghanaian’s demise.

Leaving aside the electric atmosphere sure to envelop the locale around Seventh Avenue and 32^nd Street on fight night, your not-so-humble boxing bard has reviewed countless hours of fight footage of both Cotto and Clottey hoping to find the keys to victory in what is a very evenly matched bout.  So, with the timeless refrain, “Pride cometh before the fall,” resounding in my mind, this is what I have discerned.

First and foremost, this is going to be a tough, bruising battle between two true welterweights.  Both Cotto and Clottey are stout fighters, with Clottey possessing the more sculpted of the two frames.  Cotto and Clottey each had competitive fights with Zab Judah and Antonio Margarito, which means these two warriors know how to both sustain and mete out punishment.  This is sure to be a battle of wills in the truest sense of the phrase, with the victor being the one who is willing to fight through blistering punishment.  This means entertaining viewing for the public, which is important since this fight will air on HBO during HBO’s free preview weekend.  If both fighters deliver their best, it could lead to an increased fan base for boxing.

From a technical standpoint, this fight pits an aggressive boxer puncher in Cotto versus a plodding counterpuncher in Clottey.  Cotto, a converted southpaw, would be best served to utilize his wicked left hook to the body followed by a straight right hand to the head, which he worked to perfection against Margarito.  By continually pounding the body of Clottey, Cotto will slowly begin to lower Clottey’s signature hands-up, tight defensive shell.  If Cotto can gradually bring down Clottey’s guard, the Puerto Rican will then be able to unleash lefts to the liver followed by a quick left hook upstairs to Clottey’s head.

As for Clottey’s plan of attack, I believe he will need to be much more active than he has been in most of his bouts.  In a fight that I see going to the cards (Clottey has never been stopped, and Cotto’s only submission came at the now suspect hands of Margarito), punch output will be of prime importance.  This means that Clottey will need to move to his left (away from Cotto’s left hook) and use his jab.  When the Ghanaian gets in close, he will need to use his left uppercut, which was very effective against Judah.  It was Clottey’s left uppercut that caused the cut over Judah’s right eye, which led to Clottey’s “technical decision”, i.e. TKO, win in round nine).  Furthermore, Clottey will need to be sharp and precise with his counterpunching, using overhand rights when Cotto jabs, and left hooks to Cotto’s body if Cotto reaches with his right hand.

Another aspect of this fight that I would be remiss in omitting is the proclivities of both fighters to, at times, stretch the rules of clean fighting.  Clottey likes to lead with his head, which often leads to “accidental” head butts that open wounds on his opponent’s visage.  Cotto, on the other hand, has a penchant for low blows (witness his 2007 battle with Judah for evidence of several punches straying below the beltline), and although he feigns regret with an apologetic bow, the damage has still be done.  It would not surprise this author if the contest turns a little chippy as the action heads into the later rounds.

Of course, a pugilistic match-up at this elite level often comes down to intangible elements that make the difference between victory and defeat.  For Cotto, there are two lingering questions to be answered.  First, has Cotto fully recovered both physically and mentally from the bludgeoning he received in his epic war with Antonio Margarito last summer?  Second, how will the man from Caguas respond to his new trainer, Joe Santiago, having recently fired his uncle (Evangelista Cotto) after a physical altercation resulted in an acrimonious divorce?  Clottey, for his part, has his own issues.  He has not fought since August 2008.  Will the ten month layoff result in any ring rust?  Does he possess the stamina necessary to increase his work rate?  Also, how will Clottey handle the biggest stage of his career and the hostile crowd he is sure to encounter?

In the final analysis, I envision a highly entertaining fight with each combatant having his moments.  Both men will wake up on Sunday morning with the full realization that they have been in a violent clash.  When pressed for a prediction, I see Cotto pleasing his fans with a close unanimous decision victory (much like his fight at Madison Square Garden with Shane Mosley in November 2007).  Cotto’s triumph will be due primarily to his superior boxing skill and greater punch output.  He will control the pace of the fight, win the chess match known as ring generalship, and in so doing, further cement his place in the pantheon of Puerto Rican boxing heroes.

***The Miguel Cotto – Joshua Clottey fight will air live on HBO at 10:30 EST/8:30 MST on Saturday, June 13.***